Consumers are downsizing their Thanksgiving plans this year amid the ongoing spread of the coronavirus, and retailers are preparing accordingly.
A third of consumers—33 percent—are planning to get together with fewer people this year, according to research from FMI—The Food Industry Association, and 26 percent said they are planning to avoid long-distance travel, or travelers. In addition, 19 percent said they are planning virtual Thanksgiving celebrations.
Meanwhile, IRI research found that only 29 percent of consumers said they expect to attend a Thanksgiving meal with extended family who do not live with them, and one in four consumers who usually celebrate Thanksgiving said they expect to spend less this year.
In response, retailers are stocking up on smaller turkeys and offering more scaled-down prepared dinners. Retailers have also seen consumers begin their holiday food shopping earlier than usual, perhaps fearful of shortages in the supply chain like those that befell the industry in March and April.
“We always see an uptick in baking products at this time of year, but we’ve noticed that customers are starting their holiday baking shopping earlier than normal, filling their pantries with supplies sooner,” Scott Crawford, chief merchandising officer, FreshDirect, told SFA News Daily. “We’ve also seen some movement in non-perishables such as canned goods like pumpkin puree, pastas, and spices.”
To prepare for the holiday season, the New York City-based online grocer secured items such as canned pumpkin, baking supplies, and spices earlier than usual this year and has been holding more inventory of those items than usual in its warehouses, Crawford said. FreshDirect has also leveraged its relationships with farmers and ranchers, asking them to increase their supply for the company this year, he said.
Crawford said FreshDirect is seeing the strongest demand for its small and medium Thanksgiving dinner packages, and the company anticipates that demand for smaller diners will be even stronger this year.
The company is also working with its suppliers to source smaller turkeys. Packers are harvesting toms earlier to keep them smaller, and focusing more on hens, Crawford said. FreshDirect is also expecting stronger demand this year for fresh turkey breasts and tenderloins, and is launching a lemon-herb marinated breast this year as an easy option for smaller gatherings.
It is also planning for strong sales of whole chickens, which Crawford said could be “a more manageable option” for smaller Thanksgiving gatherings.
No Hot Dinners at Harmons
At West Valley City, Utah-based Harmons Grocery, the company made the decision back in August that it would close all of its stores this Thanksgiving, leading it to cancel its traditional offerings of hot, ready-to-eat store-cooked dinners.
“Our associates have gone above and beyond this year to keep shelves stocked, stores cleaned, and customers served during the pandemic,” said Bob Harmon, chairman for the customer at the 19-store chain. “To thank them for their dedication, the decision was made to close on Thanksgiving to enable associates to spend time with their families.”
Instead of hot Thanksgiving meals, Harmons is offering a selection of six heat-and-serve dinners and two ready-to-roast turkey dinner options, available in-store or through Harmons eShop and curbside pickup. Among the heat-and-serve dinners is a plant-based meal featuring Harmons’ own Impossible Meatless Loaf, which comes with balsamic green beans, rosemary potatoes, roasted carrots, country French loaf, and a vegan pumpkin pie from local purveyor City Cakes Bakery & Cafe.
“While gatherings are anticipated to be smaller, we anticipate the people are finding new ways to care for each other, and food is a part of that,” said Lindee Nance, VP of marketing.
She said Harmons also anticipates that consumers may be shopping earlier than in previous years.
Cincinnati-based Kroger Co. said it has purchased more turkeys than usual this year, in a range of sizes, counting on the fact that consumers will still celebrate, but in smaller gatherings, according to a Public Broadcasting Service report. The retailer is also expecting more demand for turkey alternatives for Thanksgiving, according the report, including ham, pork roast, seafood, and plant-based entrées such as a stuffed vegan roast.
Bentonville, Arkansas-based Walmart, meanwhile, said it will stock 30 percent more turkey breasts this year to accommodate consumers hosting smaller gatherings, the PBS report said.
Warming Up for Thanksgiving
At FreshDirect, Crawford said the Jewish High Holidays and Halloween “are essentially ‘warm up’ holidays for Thanksgiving through the New Year.
“We correctly scaled our product for the level of demand during the High Holidays and Halloween, so we believe we are on target to deliver for the increased demand this holiday season,” he said.
Consumers began their holiday shopping about two weeks earlier than normal this year, he said.
FreshDirect, as an online-only retailer, has unique insights into consumer trends, Crawford said, noting that consumers often start filling their online shopping carts several days in advance.
“This allows us to leverage our long-standing direct relationships with our providers, ordering in real time and replenishing quickly,” Crawford said.
He and other retailers agreed that organic butter is one product that will be in short supply this year.
“There is already high demand as well as less product at this time of year, but this year it’s going to get especially tight,” Crawford said.
He explained that early in the pandemic, there was an overabundance of dairy supply, leading farmers to dump their milk, and the market bounced back faster than it could be replenished. FreshDirect is addressing the organic butter shortage by forging relationships with premium, localized brands, he said.
Related: Sam's Club to Offer Smaller Sizes for Holidays; 5 Retail Trends for the 2020 Holiday Season.
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