Arabica coffee prices are expected to rise nearly 20 percent by the end of 2019, reports Reuters. The prediction is based on a poll of nine traders and analysts ahead of Brazil's shift to an off-year in its biennial production cycle, putting the world in a deficit.
The participants anticipate a global deficit of 1 million 60-kilogram bags in 2019/20, according to the median forecast, compared to estimates of a 4.25 million-bag surplus for 2018/19. Arabica prices are expected to be lifted to $1.25 per pound by the end of 2019, nearly 25 percent above Feb. 11's close, as global supplies in the coming season tighten.
Participants expect the 2019/2020 crop for Brazil at a median 55 million bags, representing decline of about 8.3 percent from the record 2018/2019 crop, which pushed arabica prices to a nearly 13-year low of 92 cents per pound in September. The low prices were far below the cost of production in many countries and forced some growers to invest less in their farms.
Meanwhile, robusta beans have a similar outlook, and are expected to rise to $1,775 per metric ton by the end of 2019, a 16 percent increase from Feb. 11's close, according to the poll. An analyst from Capital Economics says demand should be more than enough to absorb high robusta output, as the market for instant coffee expands into emerging markets. Full Story
Related: World's Wild Coffee at High Risk of Extinction; Historically Low Coffee Bean Prices to Drive Cutbacks.
from Specialty Food News http://bit.ly/2N1dXfe
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